News - 06-29-06
Raleigh Conference: Who Will Succeed Castro?
Former CIA Latin American Chief sees many changes occurring in Cuba once Castro dies, predicting he will be replaced by his brother Ral
Who will replace Fidel Castro, who turns 80 in August?
According to Brian Latell, a former CIA Latin American chief—and the keynote speaker for the fourth Raleigh International Spy Conference set for August 23-25, “It’s very likely—it’s most likely—that his brother Ral will take over with some other generals and other prominent civilians in a successor regime,” Latell said. But he “wouldn’t bet the mortgage” on Castro’s 75-year-old younger brother taking over.
“I say Ral because he has been the designated successor since 1959—from the very beginning when Castro seized power,” explained Latell, who retired from the CIA in 1998. “He controls the military, he controls the intelligence services, and he also runs a large percentage of the Cuban economy. He’s the world’s longest serving defense minister. This guy has his hands on a lot of levers of power and influence, and I don’t think it’s likely any other leader will challenge him once Fidel is gone.”
Latell devotes much attention to the younger Castro in his book After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro’s Regime and Cuba’s Next Leader published last October. The book explains that Ral is not an unknown figure on the world stage. He joined with his older brother in the rebellion that overthrew Fulgencio Batista New Year’s Day 1959 and was responsible for many of the unsavory acts by the regime. “I argue in the book that Ral has been underestimated, that Fidel would not have lasted all these years without him,” Latell said. “Ral is the only essential man at Fidel’s side.” He speculated that the two have serious differences of opinions these days over various matters. Yet Fidel remains the ruler, Ral the servant. According to Latell, “They’ve been allies in revolution since 1953. Ral as a young man lived in awe of his brother Fidel.”
While a blood brother of Fidel, Ral is much different. For one thing, he is hardly as charismatic as his older sibling, who has been idolized by communists, guerillas, left-wing media and Hollywood for his fervent opposition to the United States.
“Ral is going to have to give the people bread, not circus,” said Latell, who recently signed on as an analyst with NBC News and now works at the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies as a senior research associate. “Ral recognizes that. He won’t be able to wow the crowd like his brother has.”
Ral also has been willing to kill—on his brother’s orders, Latell said.
In his book, Latell reported the details of a “full-blooded murder, execution style” carried out by Ral against another man training with the Castro brothers in Mexico in 1956. Fidel didn’t trust the man and wanted him killed. Ral did the dirty deed.
“My source really is unimpeachable,” Latell said, citing him as a “very high-level source who defected from Cuba.”
There is more to Ral than ruthless devotion, however. Should he take over, Latell said, the Cuban people and the world might be surprised by what he does.
“Ral has a well-deserved, a well-earned reputation as a brutal, brutal draconian leader,” he explained. “Ral was one of the premier executioners during the first few years of the regime. He carried out executions in cold blood. He was very, very remorseless. That’s the reputation he has when most people think of him—a tough hardliner.
“My feeling is that he’s not very popular with the Cuban people,” Latell added. “Most think of him as the original Stalinist in the Castro government.”
Ral also is an alcoholic, Latell said. “Potentially, that really is a problem. He has been drinking heavily since his teenage years. You have to wonder, if and when he does take over, what will he do if he has been drinking too much when he needs to be sober in making decisions?”
But a side of Ral that most people don’t see does exist, Latell said.
“In researching my book, I found another side to his personality. He also has a very compassionate, sentimental side. He’s very close to his family, his wife, his children, his grandchildren. He forms very close friendships, and he’s loyal to his friends for the most part.
“The question becomes, when he takes power, which side will dominate?”
Latell said it is possible Ral will seek to open up the Cuban economy in an attempt to provide relief for the populace.
“My guess is that he will want to give Cuban people more economic freedom, but he won’t want to loosen control politically,” Latell said. “I think he could pursue something like the China model— greater economic freedom at the grassroots, but no political freedom.”
It’s not inconceivable that Ral might also seek to improve relations with the United States, Latell added. “This guy is more pragmatic than his brother. He’s less dogmatic. He’s less ideologically fixed. I don’t want to put any odds on it, but I think he would want better relationships with the US. If I’m right, that’s encouraging.”
Latell’s conclusions about who would succeed Castro, or if Ral does take command, how he might run the island, have triggered
angst among some Cuban Americans.
“All these qualities that he attributes to Ral, I dispute completely,’’ Ninoska Prez Castelln, a radio commentator in Miami and a member of the Cuban Liberty Council, recently told The Miami Herald. “I don’t know how he proposes to sell this thesis that after 47 years of sanctions against Fidel Castro, that we can contemplate negotiating with his brother. The moment Fidel dies is the moment power is up for grabs in Cuba.’’
Should Ral emerge as ruler, the US would be well served not to underestimate him whether he adopts a hard line or seeks dialogue, Latell said.
“They have one of the best spy intelligence services in the world,” said Latell. And Ral has been the boss.
—Rick Smith